Inflation/affordability is Trump's #1 weakness. Overall Trump is polling at 38%. For econ he is at 26%, for inflation/affordability he is at 22%. For millennials, it is even lower.
CPI will break 4.0% on June 10 (May CPI release) . It will stay in the 4.0% range through the election. The Fed will not be able to lower rates with 4%+. CPI going to 5% is a possibility--but after the election.
The reason for this is: the CPI is a rolling 12 month calc, new month comes on, oldest one falls out. We know what is falling off, what we don't know is the one coming on. Take an average of recent actuals and use that for the projection guess.
Even if it is off a tenth of one percent, the impact is not material. Amazingly simple but it works, been working for decades. .
Take monthly new, subtract monthly old then add this monthly change to the annual CPI and presto, the result is the new annual.
The reason this works is the change occurs on the margins of the monthly, the other 11 monthly data points don't change.
Wild card: what if Iran War is quickly settled and oil starts flowing, this restart and potential drop in gas prices will take time.
There have been times when gas prices suddenly dropped,thereby reducing inflation. This has occurred when there were over supply of gas relative to demand. We are NOT in a over supply situation now: 1. Strategic oil reserves are being drawn down fast. 2. Product in the pipeline is nearly out.
Analogy: turn off the water spigot and water in the hose will still flow until the hose is totally empty. Turn the spigot back on and you have to wait a while for water to come out the end of the hose. This delay chews up time, closer we get to election, feelings/opinions will start to solidify and don't change. Out of time = out of runway = out of luck.
Election yard sign/saying idea: Got Inflation?
Bill
TVDC is looking for a Parliamentarian
The position includes the following:
Advises members on the requirements of the Bylaws and the latest edition of Robert's Rules of Order.
Ensures that meetings are held in compliance with the Bylaws and the Rules.
Addresses proposed revisions and keeps Club Bylaws in line with Sumter County Democratic Party and Florida Democratic Party Bylaws, as we are chartered under their authority.
The First Annual “Swing Big for Democracy” golf outing was held at Arlington Ridge Golf Course on April 2, 2026. Seventy golfers and eighteen teams participated, and the winner was team 8A – Tammy Snow, Barb Garcia, Johnnie Marston, and Jean Roberts. The fairways and greens were super, the lunch was great, and the players had a terrific time and took the rainy downpour in stride. Thanks to all who arranged the event and played like or tried to imitate true pros. We’re already planning FORE next year!
Thomas Bacher
NO KINGS 3.0 was a HUGE success!!! Thank you TVDC!
